Introduction: Labour’s First Year and the Brexit Shadow
When the Labour Party returned to power in 2024 under Keir Starmer, many hoped for a reset after years of Conservative rule and the turbulent aftermath of Brexit. A year later, however, the government finds itself facing a mixed public verdict.
An independent impact assessment of Labour’s first 12 months reveals voter frustration, uneven approval ratings, and the growing threat of Reform UK, a party capitalising on disillusionment with mainstream politics.
While Brexit was formally delivered in 2020, its economic, social, and political consequences continue to shape the UK landscape. Labour is judged not only on its own policies, but on how well it manages the lingering costs of Brexit — from trade friction to immigration expectations.
This article explores in depth:
• How Brexit’s legacy frames Labour’s performance
• What voters think after one year
• The rise of Reform UK and its challenge to Labour
• Key criticisms and broken promises
• Future risks and opportunities for Labour’s survival
The Brexit Legacy: How Labour Inherited the Storm
Brexit’s Economic Aftershocks
Though Labour did not negotiate Brexit, it inherited its effects:
• Trade barriers with the EU leading to reduced exports and higher costs.
• Labour shortages in health, agriculture, and hospitality due to new immigration rules.
• Supply chain frictions driving inflation and cost-of-living pressures.
• Foreign investment declines compared to pre-Brexit trends.
Labour attempted to smooth relations with the EU, negotiating sectoral agreements on trade and science. But critics say these are “minimal” compared to the broader Brexit costs.
Political Expectations
Brexit reshaped voter expectations:
• Many leave-leaning voters demand tougher immigration controls.
• Others want closer ties to the EU to repair economic damage.
• Labour’s challenge is to balance contradictory demands.
Sovereignty vs Pragmatism
Labour promised not to rejoin the EU or single market, but also pledged to “make Brexit work.” This pragmatic stance risks pleasing nobody — Brexiteers call it weak, Remainers call it inadequate.
Voter Sentiment: How Labour’s First Year Was Graded
A joint UCL Policy Lab / More in Common study asked voters to grade Labour’s first year. Results were sobering:
• Median voter grade: E
• Labour voters: average grade C
• Key issue failures: immigration, economy, cost of living, NHS
• Criticism: broken promises and U-turns
Common Voter Themes
1. “We expected real change, but got tinkering.”
2. “The government says one thing and does another.”
3. “Immigration is still out of control.”
4. “Nothing has changed for the cost of living.”
Regional Variation
• England (North and Midlands): Strongest dissatisfaction, where Reform UK is making gains.
• Scotland: Labour faces competition from the SNP, but some pro-EU voters are frustrated Labour won’t reopen membership talks.
• Wales: Moderate support, but economic concerns remain dominant.
Broken Promises and Policy U-Turns
Labour’s credibility problem comes partly from unmet pledges:
• Green energy investment: scaled back due to fiscal pressures.
• Tuition fee reform: postponed indefinitely.
• Migration controls: targets unclear, enforcement weak.
• Taxation promises: some middle-income earners saw tax rises despite assurances.
These reversals contribute to voter cynicism: “They’re just like the Conservatives.”
Reform UK: From Protest to Power Player
The Rise of Reform UK
Once dismissed as a protest party, Reform UK has surged. In some polls, it rivals Labour and the Conservatives. Its appeal lies in:
• Immigration control as its central message.
• Anger at broken promises by Labour and Conservatives.
• Populist rhetoric of “listening to ordinary people.”
Who Is Voting Reform?
• Ex-Conservatives frustrated with Tory decline.
• Disillusioned Labour voters, especially working-class men in northern constituencies.
• Floating voters sceptical of mainstream politics.
Electoral Threat
Reform’s rise threatens Labour on two fronts:
1. By-elections: Already costing Labour seats.
2. National elections: Splitting the vote, creating unpredictable outcomes.
If Reform consolidates its base, Labour risks losing “Red Wall” style constituencies once again.
Key Criticisms of Labour’s First Year
1. Lack of Vision – Voters accuse Labour of “fiddling at the edges” instead of bold reforms.
2. Economic Struggles – High inflation, weak growth, and cost-of-living remain.
3. Immigration Management – Failure to deliver visible reductions.
4. Broken Promises – U-turns undermine credibility.
5. Poor Communication – Messages seen as vague or contradictory.
Brexit and the Economy: Labour’s Dilemma
Labour’s economic strategy is constrained by Brexit realities:
• Trade Costs: The OBR estimates Brexit shaved 4% off GDP long term.
• Exports: Declines in car manufacturing, agriculture, and services.
• Investment: EU investors reluctant due to regulatory divergence.
• Inflation: Supply chain costs feed into price rises.
Labour highlights small EU deals as progress, but critics say the big structural damage remains unaddressed.
Immigration: The Hot-Button Issue
Brexit raised expectations of tighter immigration. Labour pledged to “restore control,” but voters see little progress:
• Net migration remains high, driven by worker shortages.
• Illegal crossings via the Channel continue to dominate headlines.
• Public perception: “Labour is weak on borders.”
This fuels Reform UK’s growth, with Nigel Farage and successors branding Labour as “out of touch.”
Labour’s Communication Gap
Beyond policies, Labour’s messaging is under fire:
• Promises vs reality gap.
• Over-use of technical language, failing to resonate with ordinary voters.
• Inconsistent tone between pragmatism (EU relations) and toughness (immigration).
Voters perceive Labour as “saying one thing, doing another.”
What Labour Could Do to Recover
Policy Areas
1. Immigration: Clearer targets, faster enforcement, visible results.
2. Cost of Living: Stronger relief packages, energy bills support.
3. Brexit Pragmatism: Honest admission of Brexit costs, focus on damage control.
4. NHS Reform: Tangible improvements in waiting times and staffing.
Political Strategy
• Rebuild trust by avoiding further U-turns.
• Outflank Reform UK by addressing core voter anxieties.
• Engage disillusioned Remainers by showing closer EU ties without rejoining.
• Improve communication — direct, plain-spoken, consistent.
Future Risks for Labour
1. Reform UK Momentum – Could bleed votes in working-class strongholds.
2. Conservative Revival – If Tories regroup, Labour faces attacks from both sides.
3. Economic Headwinds – Stubborn inflation and weak growth may worsen dissatisfaction.
4. Public Services Strain – NHS crisis, housing shortages, crime rates remain unresolved.
5. Brexit Costs – Failure to mitigate will haunt Labour for years.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Why is Labour being criticised after only one year?
Because voters expected big change after 14 years of Conservative rule. They see continuity, broken promises, and slow results.
How has Brexit shaped Labour’s performance?
Labour inherited Brexit’s economic and political costs. Efforts to “make Brexit work” are seen as insufficient.
Why is Reform UK rising?
Reform taps into voter frustration on immigration, cost of living, and distrust of mainstream parties.
Could Labour lose power to Reform UK?
Not outright, but Reform can split Labour’s base, costing it by-elections and seats in marginal areas.
Is Brexit still an issue in 2025?
Yes. Though legally “done,” its consequences on trade, economy, and immigration still dominate politics.
Conclusion: A Fragile First Year
Labour’s first year in power was meant to be a new chapter after Brexit turmoil. Instead, it has revealed the deep fractures in British politics.
Voters are sceptical, Reform UK is rising, and Brexit’s shadow continues to loom. Unless Labour can deliver tangible improvements on the economy, immigration, and public services, its majority risks being eroded quickly.
For now, Labour remains in power — but its honeymoon is over, and the battle for credibility has just begun.
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